The U.S. midterm elections took place in November, yet the final results for several House of Representatives races were still pending days after. This situation often leads to the question: Why Is The House Election Taking So Long to finalize? While it appeared likely that Republicans would secure a majority in the House, mirroring their expected Senate majority, the delay in calling numerous races left many wondering about the reasons behind the hold-up.
One of the primary factors contributing to this extended timeline, as explained by Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, is the state of California. California’s election procedures significantly impact the national election timeline due to its large population and specific ballot counting rules.
The California Factor: Mail-in Ballots and Extended Deadlines
California’s approach to mail-in ballots is a key reason why the House election count is taking so long. Unlike some states that require voters to request absentee ballots, California proactively sends mail ballots to every registered voter. Furthermore, ballots postmarked on or before Election Day are accepted if they arrive up to seven days after the election. This extended window creates a degree of uncertainty in the immediate aftermath of Election Day.
Professor Jones notes, “California takes a lot longer to count their ballots than anyone else because they allow ballots that are postmarked as of Election Day to arrive up to seven days later.” This policy means election officials are unsure of the total number of ballots still outstanding on election night and in the days following. Major news outlets and the Associated Press, known for their election result calls, become cautious, waiting for a clearer picture before declaring winners, even when initial results suggest a candidate’s lead.
This system contrasts sharply with states like Texas, where requesting a mail-in ballot is necessary. In Texas, election officials have a much clearer estimate of outstanding ballots, allowing for quicker projections in close races. However, in California, the potential influx of ballots in the days after the election makes predicting outcomes immediately after Election Day far more challenging, directly answering the question of why is the house election taking so long in many races.
Ranked Choice Voting: Adding Complexity in Some States
Beyond California’s influence, another element prolonging the vote count in certain states is ranked choice voting. States like Maine and Alaska utilize this system, which introduces a multi-stage counting process.
“Two of those are Maine and Alaska,” Jones points out, highlighting states employing ranked choice voting. In this system, voters rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote in the initial count, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. Their votes are then redistributed to the voters’ second-choice candidates, and this process repeats until a candidate reaches the 50% threshold.
While in both Maine and Alaska, outcomes appeared relatively predictable – a Democrat expected to win in Maine and a Republican in Alaska – the ranked choice process itself necessitates additional time. Alaska further extends this timeline by accepting mail ballots from overseas and military personnel until November 20th, further contributing to why the House election is taking so long in that state.
Republicans Expected to Take the House – What’s the Hold Up?
Despite the delays, Republicans were widely anticipated to gain control of the House of Representatives. Initial counts showed Republicans securing 214 seats compared to the Democrats’ 203. Securing 218 seats is the threshold for a majority, placing Republicans on a clear path to control.
Professor Jones stated, “Republicans are likely on track to get at least 218 seats and potentially as many as 222.” While acknowledging the possibility of unexpected shifts in close races, he emphasized that the most probable scenario remained a Republican majority, albeit potentially a narrow one.
The outstanding races, primarily concentrated in California due to its mail-in ballot system, and Alaska with its extended deadlines and ranked-choice voting, are the primary reason why the House election is taking so long to be officially called in its entirety.
When Will We Know the Final Results?
For those seeking a definitive timeline on why the House election is taking so long and when results will be finalized, Professor Jones offered some clarity. He anticipated that most of the pending California races, along with those in other states with significant mail-in voting, would likely be called by the end of the week following the election.
“By the end of the week, we will know definitively who’s going to control the House,” Jones projected. He reiterated that based on available data, a Republican House majority was a near certainty. The remaining time was primarily needed to accommodate the ballot counting processes in states with unique systems like California and Alaska, ensuring all legally cast votes are properly counted and reflected in the final election outcomes. This thorough process, while lengthy, is essential for maintaining the integrity and accuracy of the democratic process, which is the ultimate answer to why is the house election taking so long.
