Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent presidential run has been a notable storyline in the 2024 election cycle. Despite suspending his campaign and endorsing former President Donald Trump in August, a key question remains for many voters: why is RFK Jr. still on the ballot in some states? This article delves into the complexities of ballot access, Kennedy’s strategic decisions, and the implications for the upcoming election.
RFK Jr.’s Campaign Pivot and Endorsement of Trump
Initially entering the race as a Democratic primary challenger, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. shifted gears in October 2023 to run as an independent candidate. This move immediately sparked debate, with both Democrats and Republicans wondering whether his candidacy would siphon votes from their respective bases. However, facing an uphill battle and seeing no clear path to victory as an independent, Kennedy made a significant announcement in Phoenix on August 23rd: he was suspending his campaign and endorsing Donald Trump.
Despite this endorsement, Kennedy stated that his name would remain on the ballot in states that are not considered battlegrounds. He even encouraged voters in those states to cast their ballots for him. In closely contested battleground states, acknowledging his potential spoiler role, Kennedy said he would actively work to remove his name and urged voters against voting for him in those key areas, citing polling data indicating he would likely benefit Democrats in those states. Subsequently, Kennedy broadened his stance, suggesting his supporters nationwide should vote for Trump and requesting withdrawal from ballots beyond just battleground states.
The Intricacies of Ballot Access and State Regulations
Gaining ballot access as an independent candidate in the United States is a challenging and often expensive endeavor. Unlike candidates from major parties, independents must navigate a patchwork of state-specific regulations. These rules typically require collecting a substantial number of signatures from registered voters or securing the support of a recognized minor party to even apply for ballot inclusion. The specifics vary significantly from state to state, creating a complex legal landscape for independent hopefuls like Kennedy.
This complexity is precisely why, even after suspending his campaign, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is still listed on the ballot in certain states. For example, Wisconsin rejected Kennedy’s withdrawal request, citing state law that mandates candidates remain on the ballot unless deceased. Similarly, in Michigan, election officials deemed it too late for Kennedy to successfully remove his name from the ballot. While the Michigan Court of Appeals initially granted his request, the Michigan Supreme Court ultimately upheld his inclusion on the ballot.
Why Ballot Status Matters: Impact on the 2024 Election
Experts emphasize that in closely contested states, even a minor candidate’s presence on the ballot can have significant consequences. Dan Mallinson, an associate professor at Pennsylvania State University at Harrisburg, noted Kennedy’s name recognition sets him apart from typical third-party candidates, potentially influencing voter behavior.
Before Kennedy suspended his campaign, polls indicated a tight race in states like Michigan and Wisconsin. CBS News estimates from August showed a statistical tie between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump in both states. Post-suspension polling from Marquette Law School in Wisconsin revealed Harris at 47%, Trump at 43%, and Kennedy still garnering 6% of support among registered voters, highlighting his continued, albeit reduced, influence. Pew Research Center polling data further suggested that a shift from Biden to Harris as the Democratic nominee saw a corresponding increase in Democratic support, largely drawn from previous Kennedy supporters.
However, historical trends indicate that third-party candidates often see their poll numbers decline as Election Day approaches. Matthew Foster, a professor at American University, explains that voter preferences become more solidified closer to the election, leading many to gravitate back to the major party candidates, Republican or Democrat.
Currently, over half of U.S. states and Washington, D.C., have confirmed RFK Jr.’s presence on the November ballot. While he successfully withdrew from battleground states like Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada, and will not appear in others including Florida, New York, and Georgia due to qualification issues or withdrawal deadlines, his name remains an option for voters in numerous states.
Conclusion: RFK Jr.’s Enduring Ballot Presence
In conclusion, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is still on the ballot in several states due to a combination of factors: the intricate and state-specific nature of ballot access laws, the timing of his campaign suspension relative to state deadlines for ballot changes, and legal requirements that can prevent removal even upon candidate request. While he has endorsed Donald Trump and asked voters in key states not to vote for him, his name will still appear as an option for many voters in the 2024 election. Whether this remaining ballot presence will significantly impact the election outcomes, especially in non-battleground states, remains to be seen, but it underscores the complexities and lasting effects of campaign decisions within the U.S. electoral system.
