Israel has recently conducted a series of air strikes targeting Iran, marking a significant escalation in the long-standing tensions between the two nations. These strikes, which Israel described as targeting “military targets,” were widely anticipated as a response to a prior Iranian missile attack on Israeli territory. To understand the current confrontation, it’s crucial to delve into the sequence of events, the underlying motivations, and the deep-seated animosity that fuels this conflict.
Israel’s Retaliation: Air Strikes on Iran
In the early hours of Saturday, Israel executed air strikes within Iran. These attacks appeared to be strategically limited, focusing on sites associated with missile manufacturing and launch capabilities, as well as other unspecified “aerial capabilities,” according to Israeli statements. This action was a direct response to a previous Iranian missile barrage against Israel.
This recent Israeli operation was not an isolated incident but rather the latest move in a dangerous game of retaliation between the two countries. Israel had publicly vowed to retaliate after Iran launched a significant ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1st.
Iran’s Missile Attack and Israel’s Response
On October 1st, Iran launched over 180 missiles towards Israel. The majority of these projectiles were intercepted by Israel’s robust air defense systems and allied forces led by the United States. However, some missiles managed to penetrate defenses, hitting air bases and other strategic locations within Israel. Tragically, a Palestinian individual lost their life due to falling missile debris.
Following this Iranian aggression, Israel affirmed its intention to respond, although it remained ambiguous about the timing and nature of its retaliation. Speculation was rife regarding the potential Israeli response, ranging from limited, targeted strikes to more extensive attacks aimed at Iran’s critical infrastructure, such as oil fields and nuclear facilities. Israel’s recent air strikes appear to be the fulfillment of this vow, signaling a calculated response while seemingly avoiding immediate further escalation into a full-scale war.
Why Did Iran Attack Israel?
To fully grasp the current situation, it’s essential to understand why Iran initiated the attack on Israel in the first place. Iran stated that its missile attack on October 1st was in retaliation for the deaths of several key figures aligned with them: leaders from Hezbollah and Hamas, both Iranian-backed groups actively engaged in conflict with Israel, and a senior Iranian military commander.
Iran attributed these deaths to Israeli actions. Specifically, they pointed to the deaths of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Brig Gen Abbas Nilforoushan, who were killed in Beirut on September 27th when Israel bombed the building they were in. Additionally, Iran blamed Israel for the death of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh, who died in an explosion in Tehran on July 31st. While Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement in these specific incidents, the accusations highlight the ongoing shadow war and proxy conflicts that characterize the Israel-Iran relationship.
Iran’s October attack marked only the second time it has directly targeted Israel. The first direct attack occurred five months prior, when Iran launched approximately 300 drones and missiles at Israel, almost all of which Israel claimed to have intercepted. This earlier attack was itself a response to an Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate complex in Damascus, Syria, on April 1st, which resulted in the deaths of 13 people, including seven members of Iran’s Quds Force. Iran viewed the consulate strike as a violation of its sovereignty and a major escalation.
The Quds Force is a critical component of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), its most powerful military branch. The IRGC plays a significant role in supporting and arming proxy groups like Hezbollah, including providing advanced weaponry such as precision missiles, often channeled through Syria.
Following Iran’s drone and missile attack in April, Israel retaliated nearly three weeks later by targeting the Isfahan region in central Iran. US officials confirmed this Israeli operation, though Israel remained officially silent. Reports suggest Israeli drones targeted radar systems associated with Iran’s Russian-made S-300 air defense missile system. Israel perceives these systems as a significant threat to its air operations in the region. This retaliatory strike was seen as limited in scope, serving as a demonstration of Israel’s capability to strike military assets within Iran.
The Deep-Rooted Enmity Between Israel and Iran
The recent exchanges of fire are just the latest manifestations of a long and complex history of antagonism between Israel and Iran. Prior to Iran’s direct attack in April, the two nations had been engaged in a protracted shadow war, characterized by covert operations and attacks on each other’s interests without direct acknowledgement.
This shadow war has intensified considerably in the context of the Gaza conflict, triggered by Hamas’s assault on Israel in October of the previous year. However, the roots of this enmity go much deeper.
Historically, Israel and Iran were allies until the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran. The revolution ushered in a new regime in Iran that fundamentally shifted the country’s foreign policy, with opposition to Israel becoming a cornerstone of its ideology.
The current Iranian regime does not recognize Israel’s right to exist and openly calls for its destruction. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has referred to Israel as a “cancerous tumor” that is destined to be “uprooted and destroyed.”
From Israel’s perspective, Iran poses an existential threat. This perception is based on Iran’s hostile rhetoric, its active support for proxy forces in the region like Hezbollah, who are committed to Israel’s destruction, and its financial and military assistance to Palestinian groups such as Hamas. Furthermore, Israel and many Western nations are deeply concerned about Iran’s nuclear program, suspecting that Tehran is secretly pursuing the development of nuclear weapons, a claim Iran vehemently denies.
Military Capabilities: A Comparison
While Iran has a significantly larger geographical area and population (nearly 90 million compared to Israel’s approximately 9 million), this demographic advantage does not translate directly into military superiority.
Iran has invested heavily in developing its missile and drone capabilities. It possesses a substantial arsenal and has been a key supplier of these weapons to its proxy forces, including the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran has also focused on upgrading its air defense systems and fighter jets, reportedly with assistance from Russia in exchange for Iranian military support in the Ukraine conflict. Russia is believed to have provided Iran with Su-35 fighter planes and advanced S-300 air defense systems.
However, Israel boasts one of the most advanced air forces globally. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Israel operates at least 14 squadrons of advanced jets, including F-15s, F-16s, and the cutting-edge F-35 stealth fighter.
Israel also possesses extensive experience in conducting long-range strikes in hostile territory. While the shortest distance between Iran and Israel is around 1,000km (620 miles), the distance from Tel Aviv to Tehran is approximately 1,600km, potentially exceeding the operational range of some Israeli aircraft without refueling.
Adding another layer of complexity, Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, though it maintains a policy of nuclear ambiguity, neither confirming nor denying their existence. Iran, on the other hand, does not currently possess nuclear weapons. However, Western powers suspect Iran of covertly seeking to develop them. Iran consistently denies these allegations, stating its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes.
Both Israel and Iran have civilian nuclear programs. However, Iran’s program has been under international scrutiny for decades due to concerns about a potential parallel program aimed at producing weapons-grade enriched uranium and developing nuclear warheads.
In May, the head of the global nuclear watchdog agency stated that Iran was “weeks rather than months” away from having enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb. It is crucial to note that this does not mean Iran is imminently close to possessing a nuclear weapon. Further steps would be required, including enriching the material to military grade and developing functional warheads, capabilities Iran is not currently believed to have.
Unlike Iran, Israel is not a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Iran is a signatory, and the NPT mandates that member states allow inspections of their nuclear facilities to ensure they are used for peaceful purposes.
The 2015 UN-backed deal aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief has largely collapsed after the US withdrew in 2018 under President Trump. Since then, Iran has significantly expanded its nuclear program, raising international concerns.
Iran’s Allies and Regional Influence
Iran has cultivated a network of allies and proxy forces across the Middle East, which it refers to as the “axis of resistance,” aimed at challenging US and Israeli interests in the region. Iran provides varying degrees of support to these groups.
Syria stands as Iran’s most crucial ally. Iran, along with Russia, played a pivotal role in supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime during the prolonged Syrian civil war.
Iran’s relationship with Russia is becoming increasingly significant. In December, the Russian foreign ministry indicated that the two countries were accelerating efforts to finalize a “major new interstate agreement,” suggesting closer strategic cooperation.
Iran has supplied Russia with Shahed attack drones, which have been used in the conflict in Ukraine. Reports also suggest Iran has provided Russia with ballistic missiles, though Iran denies these claims. Conversely, Iran states that Russia intends to provide Iran with more advanced aircraft, indicating a deepening military partnership.
Among the armed groups supported by Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon is the most formidable. Hezbollah and Israel have been engaged in near-daily cross-border fire exchanges since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war. This ongoing conflict has displaced tens of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border.
Iran also backs various Shia militias in Iraq, which have conducted rocket attacks against US bases in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan. The US has retaliated against these groups, particularly after an attack that resulted in the deaths of three US soldiers in Jordan.
In Yemen, Iran supports the Houthi movement, which controls the most populated regions of the country. The Houthis have launched missiles and drones towards Israel and have been attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea, causing significant disruptions to global trade. The US and UK have responded with strikes against Houthi targets.
Furthermore, Iran provides weapons and training to Palestinian armed groups, including Hamas, which carried out the October 7th attack on Israel. However, Iran denies any direct involvement in the planning or execution of the October 7th attack itself.
The ongoing exchanges between Israel and Iran underscore the precarious and volatile situation in the Middle East. Understanding the historical context, the motivations behind each nation’s actions, and the complex web of alliances and proxy conflicts is crucial for comprehending the current escalating tensions and the potential for further conflict.
Additional reporting by Tom Spender and Jonathan Beale, defence correspondent
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