Since February 24, 2022, Europe has witnessed its largest and most devastating conflict since World War II. President Putin’s decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine has resulted in immense casualties, with hundreds of thousands of soldiers and tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians killed or permanently injured. The world grapples with the consequences of this war, but the fundamental question remains: Why Did Russia Invade Ukraine in the first place?
Understanding the motivations behind Russia’s aggression is a complex task. The Russian leadership often employs maskirovka, a military tactic of deception and misinformation, making it challenging to discern genuine intentions from fabricated narratives. Before delving into the true origins of the conflict, it’s crucial to address and debunk several key claims propagated by Putin and the Russian government to justify the invasion.
Debunking Putin’s Justifications
Russia has presented a series of justifications for its invasion of Ukraine, each designed to appeal to different audiences and obscure the real reasons behind the conflict. Let’s examine and dismantle these claims:
“Ukraine is a hostile country”
This assertion is demonstrably false. Prior to Russia’s initial invasion in 2014, Ukraine had never exhibited hostility towards Russia. Millions of Russian speakers lived peacefully and securely within Ukraine. It was Russia’s own aggression in 2014 that initiated the ongoing conflict and instability in the region. Furthermore, Ukraine never posed a military threat to Russia before 2014, or at any point leading up to the full-scale invasion in 2022. The claim of Ukrainian hostility is a fabrication to justify unprovoked aggression.
“Russia is responding to a Nazi threat”
The “Nazi threat” narrative is a recurring piece of Russian propaganda, echoing tactics used in previous instances of aggression. In 2014, Russia invoked a supposed “fascist” threat in Ukraine to legitimize its first invasion and annexation of Crimea. This tactic is reminiscent of Soviet-era propaganda, such as the labeling of the Berlin Wall – built to prevent East Germans from fleeing to freedom – as an “anti-fascist protection wall” in 1961. The accusation of Nazism in Ukraine is baseless and serves as a pretext for military action, ignoring the democratic and diverse nature of Ukrainian society.
“Russia is responding to the threat of Ukrainian NATO membership”
While Ukraine did express interest in joining NATO and formally applied in 2008, NATO effectively froze Ukraine’s membership aspirations at the Bucharest Summit in April 2008. Therefore, the immediate threat of Ukraine joining NATO was not imminent in the years leading up to the 2022 invasion. Ironically, Russia’s aggression has had the opposite effect. Moscow’s actions have exposed its neo-colonialist ambitions and heightened security concerns among its neighbors. This directly led to Finland, which had maintained neutrality since World War II, and Sweden, neutral for two centuries, joining NATO in 2023 and 2024 respectively. Russia’s claim of acting against NATO expansion is contradicted by the actual consequences of its invasion.
“It’s something to do with the EU”
Some voices in the West have shamefully echoed Moscow’s line, suggesting that the European Union “provoked” Russia’s invasion. This narrative ignores the long history of EU-Ukraine cooperation, dating back to the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement signed in 1994. For decades, Moscow raised no significant objections to Ukraine’s closer ties with the EU. Even Viktor Yanukovych, the pro-Russian Ukrainian president elected in 2010, continued to negotiate an Association Agreement with the EU until the autumn of 2013.
To illustrate this point, consider a personal anecdote. In 2009, while serving as British ambassador to Kyiv, I visited Moscow and met with the head of the Ukraine department in Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. When I inquired if Russia had concerns about Ukraine’s deepening relationship with the EU, the response was clear: “Not at all,” he stated. “Of course, we’d rather they joined our customs union, but it’s up to them.” This firsthand account demonstrates that the EU association was not perceived as a threat by Russia at that time, further undermining the claim of EU provocation.
The Real Origins in Moscow
The true reasons for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are not found in fabricated external threats, but rather within the political dynamics of Moscow itself. A crucial turning point was the wave of pro-democracy protests that swept across major Russian cities in 2011-2013, known as the Bolotnaya protests. These demonstrations, sparked by concerns about electoral fraud and political corruption, deeply unsettled Putin. He perceived them as a direct threat to his authority and became convinced that democratic movements, if unchecked in Ukraine or elsewhere in the former Soviet sphere, could ultimately destabilize his own regime and jeopardize his grip on power. The subsequent persecution, imprisonment, and killing of opposition leader Alexei Navalny vividly illustrate Putin’s deep-seated fear of free speech, political opposition, and accusations of corruption.
This personal fear, rather than any legitimate security concern, triggered a dramatic shift in Russian policy towards Ukraine in 2013. Putin abruptly reversed course and pressured Viktor Yanukovych – his own protégé – to abandon the Association Agreement with the EU. This U-turn, driven by Putin’s anxieties about domestic political stability, ignited widespread protests in Ukraine, ultimately leading to the Maidan Revolution and the ousting of Yanukovych in 2014. In response, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea and instigated conflict in eastern Ukraine. This aggression escalated into the full-scale invasion of 2022, unleashing the ongoing bloodshed and destruction.
Historical Context: Russia-Ukraine Relations
While nationalist narratives often attempt to justify territorial claims by invoking ancient history, the most relevant historical context for understanding the Russia-Ukraine conflict is much more recent. Putin has selectively and manipulatively invoked historical events dating back to the 9th century to rationalize his invasion. However, the pivotal period is the collapse of the Soviet Union and Ukraine’s declaration of independence in 1991.
On December 1, 1991, Ukraine held a referendum on independence from the Soviet Union. The turnout was remarkably high, with 84% of eligible voters participating. The result was an overwhelming endorsement of independence, with 92.3% voting in favor. Crucially, even in regions with significant Russian-speaking populations and later affected by Russian-backed separatism, the vote for Ukrainian independence was strong. In Luhansk and Donetsk, the regions partially occupied by Russia since 2014, 83.9% voted for Ukrainian independence. Even in Crimea, the figure was 54.2% in favor of Ukrainian independence.
One week later, on December 8, 1991, the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus convened and signed the Belovezh Accords. This agreement formally declared the dissolution of the Soviet Union. On December 21, 1991, 11 of the remaining 12 Soviet republics – excluding Georgia and the Baltic states, whose independence had already been recognized – signed the Alma-Ata Protocol, reaffirming the end of the Soviet Union and establishing the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). On December 25, 1991, Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev resigned, and the Soviet flag was lowered at the Kremlin, replaced by the flag of Russia. These events definitively established Ukraine as an independent and sovereign nation, recognized by Russia and the international community.
Treaties and Broken Promises
The dissolution of the Soviet Union through the Belovezh Accords left several unresolved issues, including the disposition of Soviet-era assets and agreements regarding newly independent states. One significant loose end was the presence of a massive stockpile of Soviet weapons on Ukrainian territory. Furthermore, the newly independent republics initially shared the Soviet rouble as a common currency.
In July 1993, Russia unilaterally withdrew the Soviet rouble and introduced a new, exclusively Russian rouble. This economic move forced other former Soviet republics, including Ukraine, to introduce their own national currencies, solidifying their economic sovereignty and further dismantling the remnants of the Soviet Union.
In December 1994, Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom signed the Budapest Memorandum. In this landmark agreement, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan agreed to give up their nuclear weapons stockpiles inherited from the Soviet Union. In exchange, Russia, the US, and the UK provided security assurances, promising to respect these countries’ independence and sovereignty within their existing borders, to refrain from the threat or use of force against them, and to abstain from using economic pressure to influence their policies. It is important to note that the Budapest Memorandum did not constitute a commitment to militarily defend these countries, but it was a clear undertaking to respect their sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Further solidifying bilateral relations, in May 1997, Ukraine and Russia signed the Treaty on Friendship, Co-operation and Partnership, also known as the Big Treaty. In this treaty, both sides explicitly pledged to respect the inviolability of existing borders, to respect territorial integrity, and to refrain from invading the other’s country. Russia demonstrably violated both the Budapest Memorandum and the Treaty on Friendship, Co-operation and Partnership when it invaded Crimea in March 2014 and subsequently launched the full-scale invasion in 2022. These treaty violations underscore the fundamental breach of international law and agreements that underpin Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the reasons behind Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are deeply rooted in President Putin’s fear of democratic principles and his determination to maintain absolute political control within Russia and its perceived sphere of influence. The justifications presented by Russia, including claims of Ukrainian hostility, Nazi threats, NATO expansion, and EU provocation, are demonstrably false and serve as propaganda to mask the true motivations. The invasion represents a grave violation of international law, Ukrainian sovereignty, and numerous treaties and agreements. The ongoing conflict is a tragedy with profound consequences for Ukraine, Russia, and the international order, stemming from decisions made in Moscow, driven by political calculations far removed from the security narratives presented to the world.
