The 2024 presidential election witnessed a remarkable level of voter participation, nearly matching the historic numbers of the 2020 election. This high turnout defied conventional political wisdom, which often suggests that Republican candidates struggle when voter participation is high. However, a closer look reveals a more nuanced picture of voter turnout across the United States. While overall numbers were impressive, turnout varied significantly between different states, raising the question: why did voter turnout vary across the US in 2024?
Data from the Associated Press indicated that over 153 million votes were cast in the election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. As final counts continue in some states, particularly in California, the total vote tally is expected to approach the 158 million votes cast in the 2020 presidential election, which represented the highest turnout in over a century. Political scientist Eitan Hersh from Tufts University noted, “Trump is great for voter turnout in both parties,” suggesting the former president’s presence on the ballot energized voters across the political spectrum.
Despite predictions that high turnout would favor Democrats, Donald Trump secured victories in both the Electoral College and the popular vote, leading Kamala Harris by nearly 2.5 million votes nationwide. This outcome challenged the long-held belief that increased voter participation inherently benefits the Democratic party. This election cycle underscored that simply focusing on overall turnout numbers can be misleading without analyzing the specific demographics and locations driving that turnout.
In the lead-up to the election, concerns about voter turnout were prevalent. Donald Trump himself had previously voiced skepticism about mail-in voting, suggesting it would negatively impact Republican chances. These claims, amplified during the 2020 election and its aftermath, contributed to a complex narrative around voter access and participation. Following the 2020 election, numerous GOP-controlled states implemented new voting regulations, while Democratic-led states expanded mail-in voting options. This partisan battle over voting methods became a central theme in political discourse.
However, the 2024 election results indicate that these legislative changes had a less significant impact on overall turnout than anticipated. As Eitan Hersh pointed out, the narrative of voter suppression or widespread cheating, often pushed by both sides, appears to be “obviously wrong” in the context of the high turnout. While debates about election administration are likely to continue, Trump’s victory in a high-turnout election may lessen the intensity of these confrontations, as suggested by Republican data analyst Patrick Ruffini.
Notably, voter turnout was exceptionally high in key swing states, exceeding the national average. Ruffini highlighted that the 2024 election was particularly focused on “seven states much more so than previous elections have felt like.” This concentrated campaign effort in battleground states contributed to the surge in voter participation in those specific areas. While the national popular vote margin shifted significantly from 2020, with Joe Biden winning by 7 million votes, the swing state outcomes were much closer.
The critical distinction in voter turnout in 2024 lies in the comparison between swing states and non-competitive states. While battleground states like Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin saw increased voter numbers compared to 2020, non-competitive states experienced a decrease. For example, Illinois recorded over 500,000 fewer votes than in 2020, and Ohio saw a decrease of more than 300,000 votes. Arizona’s turnout remained nearly the same as four years prior.
In several swing states, including Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, Kamala Harris even matched or surpassed Joe Biden’s 2020 vote totals. Overall turnout significantly exceeded the 135.6 million votes cast in the 2016 election. However, the crucial factor was that Donald Trump improved his performance in these battleground states compared to 2020. Democratic data analyst Tom Bonier acknowledged that while the Harris campaign successfully mobilized Democratic voters, “Trump got more.”
This surge in Trump’s support was partly attributed to successful GOP outreach efforts. Republicans strategically targeted infrequent voters and encouraged early and mail-in voting, tactics they had previously avoided due to Trump’s unfounded claims of voter fraud. Conservative groups implemented extensive voter registration and get-out-the-vote campaigns, effectively engaging a demographic previously considered unlikely to vote Republican. Andrew Kolvet, spokesman for Turning Point Action, cited Stacey Abrams’ successful voter mobilization strategies as an inspiration for their efforts, particularly in reaching “low-propensity conservatives who needed a little coaxing.”
The 2024 election demonstrates that while overall voter turnout remained high, variations existed across different states. The intense focus on swing states and targeted voter outreach campaigns played a significant role in shaping these turnout patterns. Moving forward, the key question remains whether this high level of engagement, particularly among Trump’s base, will persist and how it will influence the future political landscape.
