In a significant escalation of Middle East tensions, Israel has conducted overnight air strikes within Iran, targeting what it described as “military targets.” This action, carried out in the early hours of Saturday, comes as a widely anticipated response to a previous Iranian missile attack on Israel. The recent exchange underscores the deeply entrenched animosity and ongoing shadow war between the two nations, raising concerns about regional stability.
Recent Israeli Strikes on Iran: Retaliation for Missile Attack?
The recent Israeli strikes are widely viewed as a direct retaliation for Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel, which occurred on October 1st. During that earlier incident, Iran launched over 180 missiles towards Israel. While Israel’s advanced air defense systems, bolstered by US-led allied forces, successfully intercepted the majority of these projectiles, some missiles did manage to strike air bases and other strategic locations within Israel. Tragically, a Palestinian individual lost their life due to falling missile debris.
Following the Iranian missile barrage, Israel publicly vowed to respond, though remained intentionally vague regarding the timing and nature of its retaliation. This ambiguity fueled weeks of intense speculation about the potential form of Israel’s response, ranging from limited, targeted strikes to more extensive operations aimed at Iran’s critical infrastructure, including oil fields and nuclear facilities.
Image showing Tehran street scene with billboard of Ismail Haniyeh, reflecting tensions between Iran and Israel.
The Israeli attack, when it materialized, appears to have been carefully calibrated. Initial reports suggest the strikes were limited in scope, focusing on Iranian missile manufacturing and launch sites, as well as what Israel vaguely termed “other aerial capabilities.” Details regarding the specific targets remain unclear, but the operation seems designed to send a clear message of deterrence without triggering a wider regional conflict.
The Escalating Shadow War: A History of Hostilities
To fully understand the current exchange, it’s crucial to delve into the history of antagonism between Israel and Iran. Iran’s October 1st attack was itself framed as retaliation for the deaths of key figures within Iranian-backed groups and the Iranian military establishment. Iran attributed these deaths to Israeli actions.
Specifically, Iran cited the killings of Hezbollah leaders and a senior Iranian commander. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Brig Gen Abbas Nilforoushan were killed in Beirut on September 27th when a building they occupied was bombed. Prior to this, Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an explosion in Tehran on July 31st. While Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement in these incidents, Iran has publicly blamed Israel for both.
It’s important to note that Iran’s October attack marked only the second time it has directly targeted Israel. The first instance occurred just five months prior, when Iran launched a large-scale drone and missile attack involving approximately 300 projectiles. Israel claimed to have intercepted nearly all of these. This earlier attack was in response to an Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate complex in Damascus, Syria, on April 1st, which resulted in the deaths of 13 individuals, including seven members of Iran’s Quds Force. Among the deceased were a senior Quds Force commander and his deputy. Iran condemned the consulate strike as a violation of its sovereignty.
The Quds Force is a critical component of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the most powerful branch of its armed forces. The IRGC plays a key role in funneling arms and equipment, including precision missiles, through Syria to Hezbollah, further exacerbating regional tensions.
Israel’s response to Iran’s drone and missile attack came nearly three weeks later, with strikes targeting Iran’s central Isfahan region. US officials confirmed the Israeli operation, although Israel maintained its policy of non-comment. Reports indicate that Israeli drones targeted radar systems associated with Iran’s Russian-made S-300 air defense missile system. Israel perceives this system as a significant threat to its air operations in the region. This retaliatory strike was widely interpreted as a limited action, intended to demonstrate Israel’s capacity to strike military assets within Iran.
The Ideological Divide and Existential Threats
The roots of the Israel-Iran conflict extend far beyond recent attacks. Prior to Iran’s direct attack in April, the two nations had been engaged in a protracted shadow war for years, characterized by covert operations and attacks on each other’s interests, often without explicit acknowledgement.
The intensity of this shadow war has dramatically escalated amidst the ongoing conflict in Gaza, triggered by Hamas’s attacks on Israel in October of last year. Ironically, Israel and Iran were once allies prior to the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran. The revolution ushered in a new regime in Tehran that fundamentally shifted Iran’s foreign policy, with opposition to Israel becoming a cornerstone of its ideology.
Iran’s current regime does not recognize Israel’s right to exist and openly calls for its eradication. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has repeatedly referred to Israel as a “cancerous tumor” that is destined to be “uprooted and destroyed.”
From Israel’s perspective, Iran poses an existential threat. This perception is fueled by Iran’s aggressive rhetoric, its development of proxy forces throughout the region – most notably Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is explicitly committed to Israel’s destruction – and its financial and military support for Palestinian groups like Hamas.
Furthermore, Israel and Western nations are deeply concerned about Iran’s nuclear program, suspecting Tehran of secretly pursuing nuclear weapons development. While Iran vehemently denies these allegations, maintaining that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes, these denials have done little to assuage international concerns.
Military Capabilities and Nuclear Concerns
In terms of raw size, Iran dwarfs Israel. With a population of nearly 90 million and a significantly larger landmass, Iran possesses a considerable demographic and geographical advantage. However, this does not automatically translate into military superiority.
Iran has made substantial investments in its missile and drone capabilities. It possesses a large arsenal of domestically produced missiles and drones and has become a key supplier of these weapons to its regional proxies, including the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran has also focused on modernizing its air defense systems and fighter jets, with Russia reportedly assisting in these efforts in exchange for Iranian military support in the Ukraine conflict. Russia has provided Iran with advanced military hardware, including Su-35 fighter planes and the sophisticated S-300 air defense missile system.
Conversely, Israel boasts one of the most advanced air forces globally. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Military Balance report, Israel operates at least 14 squadrons of advanced fighter jets, including F-15s, F-16s, and the cutting-edge F-35 stealth jet. Israel’s air force is renowned for its precision strike capabilities and its demonstrated ability to conduct long-range operations deep within hostile territory. While the distance between Iran and Israel is considerable – approximately 1,000km (620 miles) at the shortest point, and 1,600km (1,000 miles) from Tel Aviv to Tehran – this is within the operational reach of Israeli aircraft, potentially with aerial refueling.
A critical, albeit officially unacknowledged, factor is Israel’s presumed nuclear arsenal. Israel maintains a policy of nuclear ambiguity, neither confirming nor denying its possession of nuclear weapons. Iran, on the other hand, does not currently possess nuclear weapons. However, Western intelligence agencies suspect that Iran has been covertly attempting to develop them. Iran consistently denies these allegations, stating it has no intention of acquiring nuclear weapons.
Both Israel and Iran possess civilian nuclear programs. However, Iran’s nuclear program has been under international scrutiny for decades due to suspicions of a parallel, clandestine effort to produce enriched uranium, a key component in nuclear weapons. In May, the head of the global nuclear watchdog agency indicated that Iran was “weeks rather than months” away from having sufficient fissile material for a nuclear weapon. It’s crucial to note that this does not mean Iran is on the verge of weaponization. Further steps, including enriching the material to weapons-grade levels and developing functional warheads, would still be required.
Unlike Iran, Israel is not a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Iran is a signatory and, as such, is obligated to allow inspections of its nuclear facilities to ensure they are used solely for peaceful purposes. The 2015 UN-backed deal, known as the JCPOA, aimed to curb Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. However, this agreement largely unraveled after the US withdrew in 2018 under President Trump. Since then, Iran has significantly expanded its nuclear program, raising international alarm.
Regional Alliances and Proxy Conflicts
Iran has cultivated a network of allies and proxy forces throughout the Middle East, which it collectively refers to as the “axis of resistance.” This network is strategically designed to challenge US and Israeli influence in the region. Iran provides varying degrees of support to these groups.
Syria stands as Iran’s most crucial ally. Iran, alongside Russia, played a pivotal role in supporting the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad during the protracted Syrian civil war. The relationship between Iran and Russia has also become increasingly significant, with deepening cooperation in various sectors, including military collaboration.
Map illustrating the regional presence of pro-Iranian militant groups, highlighting the complex web of alliances.
Among the armed groups backed by Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon is the most formidable. Hezbollah and Israel have been engaged in near-daily cross-border exchanges of fire since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas conflict. This ongoing skirmishing has displaced tens of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border.
Iran also supports various Shia militias in Iraq, which have conducted rocket attacks against US bases in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan. A recent attack in Jordan, resulting in the deaths of three US soldiers, prompted retaliatory strikes by the US.
In Yemen, Iran provides support to the Houthi movement, which controls large portions of the country. The Houthis have launched missiles and drones targeting Israel and have also disrupted international shipping in the Red Sea, sinking at least one commercial vessel. In response, the US and UK have conducted strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.
Iran provides weapons and training to Palestinian armed groups, including Hamas, which carried out the October 7th attacks against Israel. However, Iran denies any direct involvement in the planning or execution of the October 7th attack itself.
Conclusion
Israel’s recent strikes on Iran are the latest episode in a long and complex history of conflict. Driven by deep-seated ideological differences and mutual security concerns, the Israel-Iran rivalry manifests in direct confrontations, proxy conflicts, and a continuous shadow war. Understanding the historical context, the network of regional alliances, and the military capabilities of both nations is crucial to grasping the dynamics of this volatile situation and its potential implications for the broader Middle East. The escalating tensions underscore the urgent need for de-escalation efforts and diplomatic solutions to prevent further conflict and promote regional stability.
