Israel has recently conducted a series of air strikes targeting Iran, in what they described as attacks on “military targets.” This action comes as a response to a prior Iranian missile attack on Israel, an event that had been anticipated for weeks. To understand the current situation, it’s crucial to delve into the sequence of events and the underlying tensions that fuel this conflict.
Why Did Israel Attack Iran Now?
The recent Israeli strikes are a direct retaliation for Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel which occurred on October 1st. Following that initial attack, Israel publicly announced its intention to respond, although they remained ambiguous about the timing and nature of their retaliation. This period was marked by widespread speculation regarding Israel’s potential actions, ranging from limited strikes to more extensive operations targeting Iran’s critical infrastructure, including oil fields and nuclear facilities.
On Saturday, in the early hours, Israel executed its response. The strikes appear to have been carefully targeted, focusing on sites associated with missile manufacturing and launch capabilities, as well as what the Israeli military vaguely termed “other aerial capabilities.” Details regarding the specific targets remain limited, but the operation seems designed to be contained in scope.
Why Did Iran Previously Attack Israel and What Was Israel’s Response?
Iran’s missile attack on Israel on October 1st was framed as a retaliatory measure for the deaths of key figures within Iranian-backed groups, Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as a senior Iranian military commander. Iran attributed these deaths to Israeli actions.
Specifically, Iran pointed to the deaths of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Brig Gen Abbas Nilforoushan, who were killed in Beirut on September 27th when a building they occupied was bombed. Additionally, they cited the death of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh, who died in an explosion in Tehran on July 31st. While Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement in these incidents, Iran has publicly blamed Israel.
This October attack was only the second time Iran has directly targeted Israel. The first instance occurred five months prior, when Iran launched approximately 300 drones and missiles at Israel. Israel reported intercepting almost all of these projectiles. This earlier Iranian attack was itself a response to an Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate complex in Damascus on April 1st. This Damascus strike resulted in the deaths of 13 individuals, including seven members of Iran’s Quds Force, a branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Among the deceased were a senior Quds Force commander and his deputy. Iran condemned the consulate strike as a violation of its sovereignty.
The Quds Force plays a significant role in Iranian foreign policy, particularly in supporting proxy groups like Hezbollah by supplying arms and equipment, including advanced missiles, often channeled through Syria.
Israel’s response to Iran’s drone and missile attack in April came nearly three weeks later, targeting sites in Iran’s Isfahan region. US officials confirmed the Israeli operation, though Israel remained officially silent. Reports suggest that Israeli drones struck radar systems associated with Iran’s Russian-made S-300 air defense system. Israel reportedly views these systems as a potential threat to its air operations in the region. This retaliatory strike was considered limited, serving as a signal of Israel’s capability to strike military assets within Iran.
Why Are Israel and Iran Enemies?
Prior to Iran’s direct attack in April, the relationship between Iran and Israel was characterized by a long-standing shadow war. Both countries engaged in attacks against each other’s interests and assets, typically without claiming responsibility. This covert conflict has significantly intensified alongside the ongoing Gaza war, which began after Hamas’s attacks on Israel in October of the previous year.
Historically, Iran and Israel were allies before the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran. The revolution ushered in a new regime in Iran that fundamentally shifted its foreign policy, with opposition to Israel becoming a central tenet of its ideology.
The current Iranian government does not recognize Israel’s right to exist and openly advocates for its elimination. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has frequently referred to Israel as a “cancerous tumor” that is destined to be “uprooted and destroyed.”
Israel, on the other hand, views Iran as an existential threat. This perception is based on Iran’s hostile rhetoric, its development and support of proxy forces in the region, such as Hezbollah, which are explicitly committed to Israel’s destruction, and its financial and military aid to Palestinian groups like Hamas. Furthermore, Israel and many Western nations accuse Iran of secretly pursuing the development of nuclear weapons, a claim Iran consistently denies.
Do Iran and Israel Have Nuclear Weapons? What Are Israel and Iran’s Military Capabilities?
Iran possesses a significantly larger geographical area and population compared to Israel, with nearly 90 million inhabitants compared to Israel’s roughly 10 million. However, this demographic advantage does not translate directly into military superiority.
Iran has invested heavily in developing its missile and drone capabilities. It possesses a large arsenal of domestically produced missiles and drones and has also been a key supplier of these weapons to its proxy forces, including the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran has also been actively upgrading its air defense systems and fighter aircraft, reportedly with assistance from Russia in exchange for Iranian military support in the Ukraine conflict. Russia has supplied Iran with Su-35 fighter jets and the advanced S-300 air defense missile system.
Conversely, Israel maintains one of the most advanced air forces globally. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Israel operates at least 14 squadrons of advanced fighter jets, including F-15s, F-16s, and the cutting-edge F-35 stealth jet. Israel also has a proven track record of conducting long-range strikes into hostile territory. While the shortest distance between Iran and Israel is approximately 1,000km (620 miles), the distance from Tel Aviv to Tehran is about 1,600km. This distance exceeds the operational range of Israel’s fighter fleet without aerial refueling.
Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, although it maintains a policy of deliberate ambiguity regarding its nuclear capabilities. Iran, however, does not currently possess nuclear weapons, but Western intelligence agencies suspect it of covertly seeking to develop them. Iran vehemently denies these accusations, stating its nuclear program is solely for civilian purposes.
Both Israel and Iran operate civilian nuclear programs. However, Iran’s nuclear program has been under international scrutiny for decades due to concerns about a parallel, covert effort to produce enriched uranium, a key component for nuclear weapons, and the missiles to deliver them.
In May, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that Iran was “weeks rather than months” away from having sufficient fissile material for a nuclear weapon. However, this does not imply Iran is immediately capable of producing a nuclear bomb. Further steps, including enriching the material to weapons-grade levels and developing functional warheads, would still be necessary. Currently, Iran is not believed to possess nuclear warheads.
Israel is not a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), while Iran is. The NPT aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and requires signatory nations to allow inspections of their nuclear facilities to ensure peaceful use. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a UN-backed agreement designed to limit Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief, has largely collapsed after the US withdrew in 2018 under President Trump. Since then, Iran has progressively expanded its nuclear program.
Who Are Iran’s Allies?
Iran has cultivated a network of allies and proxy forces throughout the Middle East, which it collectively refers to as an “axis of resistance” against US and Israeli interests in the region. Iran provides varying degrees of support to these groups.
Syria is arguably Iran’s most critical ally. Iran, alongside Russia, played a crucial role in supporting the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad during the prolonged Syrian civil war.
Iran’s relationship with Russia is also gaining increasing strategic importance. In December, the Russian foreign ministry announced that both countries were accelerating efforts towards a “major new interstate agreement.” Iran has supplied Russia with Shahed attack drones, and reports indicate that Iran has also provided ballistic missiles. In return, Iran states that Russia intends to supply Iran with more advanced military aircraft.
Among the armed groups supported by Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon is the most formidable. Hezbollah and Israel have been engaged in almost daily cross-border exchanges of fire since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, leading to the displacement of tens of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border.
Iran also supports several Shia militias in Iraq, which have launched rocket attacks against US military bases in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan. The US retaliated after three American soldiers were killed in an attack on a military outpost in Jordan.
In Yemen, Iran backs the Houthi movement, which controls the most populated regions of the country. The Houthis have launched missile and drone attacks against Israel and have also targeted commercial shipping in the Red Sea, sinking at least one vessel. In response, the US and UK have conducted strikes against Houthi targets.
Iran also provides weapons and training to Palestinian armed groups, including Hamas, which carried out the attacks on Israel on October 7th. However, Iran denies any direct involvement in the October 7th attacks themselves.
Additional reporting by Tom Spender and Jonathan Beale, defence correspondent
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