In the early 2000s, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles were considered a promising rival to battery electric vehicles (EVs) in the race to replace gasoline cars and reduce climate pollution. Hydrogen cars were envisioned as a clean transportation solution, but today, the landscape looks very different. Electric vehicles have surged ahead, dominating the market with rapid electrification from major automakers, while hydrogen cars remain a niche offering. So, why are there not a lot of hydrogen cars on the roads today? Several key factors have contributed to this disparity, pushing battery EVs into the lead.
One significant factor is cultural appeal. The rise of Tesla in the 2010s undeniably played a crucial role in popularizing electric vehicles globally. Tesla’s innovative technology and sleek design captured public imagination and spurred widespread interest in EVs, creating a strong market momentum that hydrogen cars struggled to match.
However, the most critical factor is economics. Currently, the two mainstream hydrogen cars available in the U.S. market, the Toyota Mirai and Hyundai Nexo, carry hefty price tags, starting at approximately $50,000 and $60,000 respectively. In contrast, the cost of electric vehicles is becoming increasingly competitive, driven by the declining prices of lithium-ion batteries. While EVs are still generally more expensive than comparable gasoline cars in many cases, government incentives and tax credits are helping to bridge this price gap, making EVs more accessible to a wider range of consumers. Research has indicated that the total cost of ownership for hydrogen fuel cell cars remains higher than EVs and even gasoline vehicles, primarily due to the expense of hydrogen fuel itself.
Another crucial advantage for EVs is the existing infrastructure. A vast electrical grid already spans nations, providing a foundation for EV charging. Transitioning to electric vehicles on a large scale does present infrastructure challenges, such as the need to expand charging networks and generate more clean electricity. However, these challenges are arguably less daunting than building an entirely new hydrogen economy from the ground up. As Sergey Paltsev, a senior research scientist at the MIT Energy Initiative, points out, “You don’t really need to create another infrastructure for electric cars.” The existing electrical grid offers a significant head start for EVs.
Hydrogen does possess certain advantages. Refueling a hydrogen car is faster than charging an EV battery, and hydrogen vehicles can offer longer driving ranges, mimicking the familiar experience of gasoline car refueling. However, realizing this “pump-and-go” experience with hydrogen would require massive hydrogen production and a complex distribution network involving pipelines or trucks to supply refueling stations nationwide. Existing natural gas pipelines are not readily adaptable for hydrogen transport due to material compatibility and other technical challenges.
While EVs are not entirely emission-free due to the environmental impact of battery production, mineral sourcing, and transportation, hydrogen production also presents its own set of environmental concerns. Currently, the vast majority of hydrogen is produced from natural gas, a process that releases carbon dioxide (CO2) as a byproduct. Carbon capture technologies can mitigate these emissions, resulting in “blue hydrogen,” but this adds to the already high cost of hydrogen production. “Green hydrogen,” produced by electrolyzing water using clean electricity, is a more sustainable option, but it is currently expensive and, like EVs, increases the demand for clean electricity generation.
Despite the current dominance of EVs, hydrogen may still have a role to play in the future of clean transportation. As battery costs continue to decline, EVs are increasingly viable for passenger vehicles. However, the long driving ranges and rapid refueling offered by hydrogen could be more suitable for heavy-duty vehicles like long-haul trucks, where battery weight and charging times pose greater challenges. If a hydrogen refueling infrastructure is developed to support the trucking industry, it could also indirectly benefit passenger hydrogen vehicles. Currently, fuel cell vehicle adoption is primarily concentrated in regions with hydrogen refueling infrastructure, such as California, Japan, China, and Germany.
Innovations that drive down the cost of green hydrogen production and improve the efficiency of hydrogen fuel cell technology could revitalize the competitiveness of hydrogen cars. Furthermore, potential disruptions in the supply chains for battery minerals, or geopolitical instability in mineral-producing regions, could make domestically produced hydrogen a more attractive alternative.
In conclusion, the limited presence of hydrogen cars today is primarily due to economic and infrastructural hurdles. The higher cost of hydrogen cars and hydrogen fuel, coupled with the lack of widespread refueling infrastructure, has hindered their mass adoption compared to battery electric vehicles, which benefit from falling battery costs and an existing electrical grid. While hydrogen retains potential advantages, particularly for specific applications and long-term energy strategies, overcoming these current challenges is crucial for hydrogen cars to become a more common sight on our roads.
