Russia’s increasing involvement in the Middle East and its complex relationship with Islamic populations globally have placed it in the crosshairs of ISIS. The group’s recent attack in Moscow, while claimed by ISIS-K, needs to be understood within the broader context of Russia’s actions and ISIS’s global objectives. This article delves into the potential reasons behind why ISIS might target Moscow, examining Russia’s role in the Middle East, its internal policies, and the rise of ISIS-K in Afghanistan.
Russia’s Middle East Entanglements
Russia’s intervention in the Syrian Civil War in 2015 marked a significant return to the Middle East as a major power broker. By supporting the Assad regime, Russia was instrumental in preventing its collapse and enabling it to regain territory previously lost to rebel groups, including ISIS. This intervention, while presented as counter-terrorism, positioned Russia as a supporter of an authoritarian regime against various opposition factions, some of whom were initially supported by the West. This role mirrors, in some respects, the US’s historical support for regimes that were later viewed as corrupt and oppressive, a narrative often exploited by jihadist groups to fuel anti-Western sentiment.
Alt text: Meeting between Syrian President Assad and Russian President Putin in Sochi, highlighting Russia’s support for the Assad regime.
Furthermore, Russia’s growing influence in regions like the Sahel, particularly its engagement with regimes in Mali, where ISIS affiliates are active, could be another contributing factor. While not definitively confirmed as a direct motivator for the Moscow attack, Russia’s expanding footprint in areas with active ISIS presence inevitably increases the potential for conflict and retaliation. Additionally, ISIS-K has historically referenced the Soviet-Afghan War of the 1980s, framing Russia as a long-standing adversary in Afghanistan, potentially contributing to their targeting calculus.
Repression of Islamic Populations within Russia
Domestically, Russia’s history of dealing with its Muslim population, particularly in regions like Chechnya and Dagestan, presents another layer of complexity. The Chechen wars and subsequent security measures in these regions have been characterized by heavy-handed tactics and repression. This approach, while aimed at maintaining stability, has also generated resentment and grievances within segments of the Muslim population in Russia.
Alt text: Russian soldiers during the Chechen War, illustrating Russia’s military operations in Muslim-majority regions within its borders.
ISIS propaganda frequently exploits instances of perceived or real repression of Muslims in various countries, using it as a recruitment tool and justification for attacks. Russia’s policies and actions in its Muslim-majority regions could therefore be interpreted by ISIS as a form of oppression, providing ideological fuel for targeting Russia.
ISIS-K’s Afghanistan Base and Global Reach
The rise of ISIS-K in Afghanistan following the US withdrawal has created a new and concerning dynamic. While the Taliban and ISIS-K are rivals, and even engage in conflict, ISIS-K has managed to establish a foothold in Afghanistan and operate with a degree of autonomy. Unlike Al-Qaeda’s relationship with the Taliban in the 1990s, the relationship between these two groups is adversarial, yet ISIS-K’s presence persists.
Alt text: Map depicting ISIS activity in Afghanistan and neighboring countries, emphasizing ISIS-K’s operational area.
This Afghan base allows ISIS-K to plan and potentially execute attacks beyond Afghanistan’s borders. With no international counterterrorism presence effectively operating within Afghanistan, the risk of Afghanistan once again becoming a launchpad for transnational terrorist attacks has significantly increased.
ISIS Remains a Potent Global Threat
Despite territorial losses in Syria and Iraq, ISIS remains a globally active and lethal terrorist organization. In 2023, ISIS was responsible for the highest number of terrorism-related deaths worldwide, even though its attributed deaths had slightly decreased. This indicates a shift in tactics and geographical focus, rather than a complete defeat of the organization. Attacks attributed to ISIS occurred across multiple regions, including Russia and Eurasia, highlighting its widespread reach and continued operational capacity.
Alt text: Graph from the Global Terrorism Index identifying IS as the deadliest terrorist group in 2023, despite a decrease in attributed deaths.
The increase in the average number of deaths per terrorist attack in 2023, even excluding the Hamas attacks in Israel, suggests a concerning trend towards more impactful and potentially sophisticated attacks. This global context underscores the ongoing threat posed by ISIS and its affiliates, making countries like Russia, with its complex geopolitical and domestic circumstances, a potential target.
Conclusion
Understanding why ISIS might attack Moscow requires considering a confluence of factors. Russia’s intervention in the Middle East, its domestic policies in Muslim-majority regions, and the rise of ISIS-K in Afghanistan all contribute to a complex threat landscape. While the motivations behind the Moscow attack are still being investigated, these factors provide a crucial framework for understanding why Russia has become a target for ISIS and why the global threat of this terrorist organization remains a significant concern.
