Why Does Putin Want Ukraine? WHY.EDU.VN explains that Putin aims to re-establish a Russian sphere of influence and prevent the democratic alignment of countries near Russia. He views Ukraine’s move towards the West as a direct threat, desiring to maintain control and ensure his own political survival. Understanding Putin’s motivations involves looking at historical context, geopolitical strategy, and regime stability to understand the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Russian expansionism.
1. Understanding Putin’s Objectives in Ukraine
Putin’s objectives in Ukraine are complex and multifaceted. Experts like Hein Goemans at the University of Rochester suggest two primary goals: re-establishing a Russian empire and preventing democratic movements from threatening his regime. Let’s explore these in detail:
1.1 Re-establishing a Russian Sphere of Influence
Putin aims to restore a Russian empire, either directly through annexation or indirectly through puppet regimes. This ambition is rooted in historical grievances and a desire to regain lost power and influence.
1.2 Preventing Democratic Encirclement
Putin views the democratic aspirations of former Soviet republics, particularly Ukraine, as a direct threat to his autocratic rule. He wants to prevent democratic movements, or “Color Revolutions,” from spreading to Russia, potentially destabilizing his regime.
2. The Role of Domestic Politics in Putin’s Decisions
Domestic politics play a significant role in Putin’s decisions regarding Ukraine. The standard literature on conflict emphasizes the importance of internal political dynamics in shaping foreign policy.
2.1 Fear of Color Revolutions
Putin is wary of the “Color Revolutions” that have occurred in several former Soviet republics. These movements, which advocate for democracy and greater integration with the West, are seen as a threat to his authoritarian rule.
2.2 Protecting Political Survival
Putin’s political survival is intertwined with maintaining control over neighboring countries. Democratic movements in Ukraine could inspire dissent within Russia, endangering his grip on power.
3. The Timing of the Invasion: Why Now?
Several factors may have influenced Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine at this particular moment.
3.1 Perceived Weakness of the West
Putin might perceive the West as being in disarray, making it an opportune moment to act decisively. Internal divisions within NATO and the European Union could embolden him to pursue his objectives.
3.2 Desire to Control Ukraine’s Trajectory
Putin does not want an increasingly westernized country in his backyard. He prefers to install puppet regimes that he can control, ensuring that Ukraine remains within Russia’s sphere of influence.
4. Ukraine’s Westernization as a Trigger
Ukraine’s increasing alignment with the West has been a key factor in triggering Putin’s aggression.
4.1 Becoming a Westernized Counter-Example
Ukraine is becoming more westernized and diverse, with a regime that Putin cannot control. This poses a challenge to Russia’s autocratic system and could inspire similar movements within Russia.
4.2 Domino Effect of Democratic Revolutions
Putin fears a domino effect, where one Color Revolution leads to another, eventually reaching Russia itself. This fear drives his efforts to suppress democratic movements in neighboring countries.
5. “Salami Tactics” in International Relations
The concept of “salami tactics” helps explain Russia’s incremental approach to gaining control over Ukraine.
5.1 Gradual Acquisition of Control
“Salami tactics” involve asking for a little bit more until complete control is achieved. In this context, Russia gradually seeks to increase its influence and control over Ukraine, slice by slice.
5.2 Interlocking Commitment Problem
There is an interlocking commitment problem at play. Ukraine cannot credibly promise not to join NATO in the long term, which Russia sees as a threat. At the same time, Russia cannot credibly promise not to ask for more concessions from Ukraine, such as territorial concessions or a promise not to join NATO.
6. Is the Invasion a War Over Territory?
While territory is undoubtedly a factor, the invasion of Ukraine goes beyond a simple territorial dispute.
6.1 Beyond Separatist Territories
Initially, some believed that the conflict would be limited to the two separatist areas in eastern Ukraine. However, Putin’s ambitions extend far beyond these regions.
6.2 Installing a Puppet Regime
It seems more likely that Putin aims to install a puppet regime in Ukraine, ensuring that the country remains under Russia’s control. This aligns with his broader goal of re-establishing a Russian empire and preventing democratic movements.
7. Consequences of Putin’s Success in Ukraine
If Putin succeeds in Ukraine, the consequences would be far-reaching and devastating for international relations.
7.1 Destruction of the International Order
The principles of the International Order, including “territorial integrity,” would be undermined. Putin’s actions would signal a blatant disregard for international norms and agreements.
7.2 Increased Threat to Other Countries
Other countries, particularly the Baltic states and other former Soviet republics, would have reason to fear that they are next. Russia’s success in Ukraine would embolden it to pursue further expansionist policies.
7.3 Global Rearmament
The world would change dramatically, with NATO forced to rearm and all countries spending more on defense. This would create a more unstable and dangerous environment, where even small mistakes could escalate into major conflicts.
8. Potential Actions if Putin Fails in Ukraine
If Putin’s objectives in Ukraine fail, he may resort to risky actions in an attempt to maintain power.
8.1 “Gambling for Resurrection”
Putin may engage in “gambling for resurrection,” taking extreme measures in the hope of keeping himself in power. This could involve escalating the conflict or engaging in other destabilizing actions.
8.2 Fear of Domestic Overthrow
Putin fears that failure in Ukraine could lead to his overthrow and potential prosecution. This fear may drive him to take increasingly desperate measures.
8.3 Limited Options for the West
The West may have limited options to counter Putin’s “gambling for resurrection.” Offering him an “off-ramp” may not address his underlying fear of domestic enemies and potential punishment.
9. The Most Dangerous Situation Since World War II
The current situation in Ukraine is arguably the most dangerous since World War II, due to the high stakes and potential for escalation.
9.1 Dangerous Scenarios Regardless of Outcome
Both Putin’s success and failure in Ukraine present dangerous scenarios. This underscores the need for careful and thoughtful decision-making.
9.2 Avoiding Cornering Putin
It is crucial to avoid cornering Putin to the extent that he feels compelled to gamble everything. While it is important to punish his aggression, excessive punishment could lead to even more dangerous actions.
9.3 Competent Handling by the Biden Administration
The Biden administration has been praised for its competence in handling the crisis, demonstrating a careful, mature attitude, effective communication, and collaboration with allies.
10. Putin’s Disturbing Statements About Borders
Putin’s recent statements about the illegitimacy of post-World War I and World War II borders are deeply concerning.
10.1 Rejection of Nationalism as Basis for State
Putin has rejected nationalism as the basis of a state, a view that contradicts widely held beliefs in academia and around the world.
10.2 Challenging Post-War Borders
He has challenged the legitimacy of borders drawn by Lenin and Stalin, suggesting that they should be revised. This raises concerns about potential territorial claims against numerous former Soviet republics.
10.3 Implications for Successor Republics
If these borders are deemed illegitimate, it raises questions about the future of numerous successor republics, including Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.
10.4 Threats Against Finland and Sweden
The new threats against Finland and Sweden, warning them against joining NATO, are also extremely concerning and highlight Putin’s expansionist ambitions.
11. The Puppet Masters and Musical Chairs of Dictators
Putin has cultivated alliances with elites in many former Soviet republics, creating a network of leaders who depend on him to stay in power.
11.1 Leaders Dependent on Putin
Putin has established control over leaders in countries like Kazakhstan and Belarus, who rely on him to maintain their positions. This creates a “musical-chairs” scenario of dictators who are all afraid of losing office.
11.2 Propping Up One Another
In order to prop up one dictator, Putin has to prop up all, creating a system of mutual dependence and reinforcing his control over the region.
12. Which Empire Does Putin Seek to Reconstitute?
A key question is which empire Putin seeks to reconstitute: the Soviet Union or Tsarist Russia?
12.1 Soviet Union vs. Tsarist Russia
There are indications in Putin’s speeches that he may be aiming to restore Tsarist Russia, which would have significant implications for Poland and other countries.
12.2 Implications for Poland and Other Countries
If Putin seeks to restore Tsarist Russia, countries like Poland would have reason to be concerned about potential territorial claims and Russian aggression.
13. Analyzing the Broader Context of the Conflict
To fully understand Putin’s motivations and the broader implications of the conflict, it’s important to consider the broader context of the conflict.
13.1 Historical Grievances
Historical grievances play a significant role in shaping Putin’s worldview and his approach to Ukraine. These grievances include the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the perceived encroachment of NATO on Russia’s sphere of influence.
13.2 Geopolitical Strategy
Putin’s actions are driven by a clear geopolitical strategy aimed at restoring Russia’s great power status and securing its borders. This strategy involves asserting control over neighboring countries and preventing the spread of Western influence.
13.3 Regime Stability
Regime stability is a key concern for Putin, and his actions in Ukraine are aimed at preventing domestic unrest and maintaining his grip on power. This is closely tied to his perception of external threats and his determination to prevent democratic movements from gaining traction in Russia.
14. The Impact on International Relations
The conflict in Ukraine has had a profound impact on international relations, leading to a reassessment of alliances, defense strategies, and the future of the international order.
14.1 Reassessment of Alliances
The conflict has prompted countries to reassess their alliances and strengthen their relationships with like-minded partners. This has led to increased cooperation among NATO members and a renewed focus on collective defense.
14.2 Changes in Defense Strategies
The conflict has also led to significant changes in defense strategies, with countries increasing their military spending and investing in new technologies to deter aggression.
14.3 The Future of the International Order
The conflict has raised fundamental questions about the future of the international order, including the role of international law, the effectiveness of international institutions, and the responsibility of great powers to maintain peace and stability.
15. Seeking Clarity and Understanding
The conflict in Ukraine is a complex and multifaceted issue that requires careful analysis and a deep understanding of the underlying factors.
15.1 The Importance of Expert Analysis
Expert analysis from political scientists, historians, and other scholars is crucial for understanding the motivations and goals of the key actors involved in the conflict.
15.2 Access to Reliable Information
Access to reliable information from reputable news sources and research institutions is essential for forming informed opinions about the conflict and its potential consequences.
15.3 Encouraging Dialogue and Diplomacy
Encouraging dialogue and diplomacy among the parties involved in the conflict is essential for finding a peaceful resolution and preventing further escalation.
16. Key Takeaways
- Putin aims to re-establish a Russian sphere of influence and prevent democratic alignment near Russia.
- Domestic politics significantly influence Putin’s decisions regarding Ukraine.
- Ukraine’s increasing alignment with the West has been a key factor triggering Putin’s aggression.
- The concept of “salami tactics” helps explain Russia’s incremental approach to gaining control over Ukraine.
- If Putin succeeds in Ukraine, the consequences would be far-reaching and devastating for international relations.
- If Putin’s objectives in Ukraine fail, he may resort to risky actions to maintain power.
- The current situation in Ukraine is arguably the most dangerous since World War II.
- Putin’s recent statements about the illegitimacy of post-World War I and World War II borders are deeply concerning.
- Putin has cultivated alliances with elites in many former Soviet republics, creating a network of leaders who depend on him to stay in power.
- A key question is which empire Putin seeks to reconstitute: the Soviet Union or Tsarist Russia?
17. Insights from Hein Goemans
According to Hein Goemans, a professor of political science at the University of Rochester, Putin’s goals are twofold: to reestablish a Russian empire and to prevent democratic encirclement. Goemans warns that both a Russian victory and a Russian defeat could have dramatically bad consequences for the West and the whole world.
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19. FAQ About Putin’s Motivations in Ukraine
19.1 What is Putin’s main goal in Ukraine?
Putin’s main goal is to re-establish Russian influence and prevent Ukraine from aligning with the West.
19.2 Why does Putin see Ukraine as a threat?
Putin sees Ukraine as a threat because it is becoming more Westernized and democratic, which could inspire similar movements within Russia.
19.3 What are “salami tactics” in international relations?
“Salami tactics” involve gradually acquiring control by asking for a little bit more until complete control is achieved.
19.4 What could happen if Putin succeeds in Ukraine?
If Putin succeeds, the principles of the International Order would be undermined, and other countries would face increased threats.
19.5 What could happen if Putin fails in Ukraine?
If Putin fails, he may resort to risky actions to maintain power, potentially leading to further escalation.
19.6 How does Putin view the borders of former Soviet republics?
Putin has questioned the legitimacy of the borders of former Soviet republics, raising concerns about potential territorial claims.
19.7 What is the significance of Putin’s threats against Finland and Sweden?
Putin’s threats against Finland and Sweden highlight his expansionist ambitions and his determination to prevent NATO enlargement.
19.8 What is the “musical-chairs” scenario of dictators?
The “musical-chairs” scenario refers to Putin’s cultivation of alliances with elites in former Soviet republics, who depend on him to stay in power.
19.9 Which empire does Putin seek to reconstitute?
It is unclear whether Putin seeks to reconstitute the Soviet Union or Tsarist Russia, but his actions suggest a desire to restore Russian power and influence.
19.10 How has the conflict in Ukraine impacted international relations?
The conflict in Ukraine has led to a reassessment of alliances, changes in defense strategies, and raised fundamental questions about the future of the international order.
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